Two surprising teams meet up on Sunday in the week 11 Cardinals at Texans betting matchup. Houston being 5-4 is kind of a shocker for a team that was projected to be one of the worst teams in the league this season while Arizona at 2-8 is still in the hunt for next year’s #1 pick, but have proven they can play the spoiler as shown in last week’s 25-23 victory over Atlanta.
Houston is a -5.5 favorite for this meeting, their biggest line of the season. It’s always dangerous when a team gets momentum and starts to become the darlings of the league, but perhaps DeMeco Ryans is the real deal in his first year as an NFL head coach. Somewhat surprisingly 67% of the betting public like Arizona and the points.
Why Arizona Has Value at +5.5
The Texans have been pretty surprising as winners of three of their last four but is this also a team that might be vulnerable to start believing their own hype? Houston is a -5.5 favorite on Sunday, but they play close games as their last five have been decided by a combined 16 points.
The Cardinals are 2-8 this season, but that record has to be taken with a grain of salt considering the team was without QB Kyler Murray (knee) until last week. You could really say Arizona is 1-0 now that they have Murray back, and he was solid last Sunday with 249 yards passing to go along with a rushing TD.
Even though Arizona has a different vibe around them with Murray back, teams still are prone to overlook this club. That could especially be true for the Texans who have a showdown with AFC South leading Jacksonville next weekend in a game that could decide the division.
Why the Texans Have Value at -5.5
The Texans are prone to playing close games, and although teams could easily look past Arizona the Cardinals also have plenty of double digit losses on their resume like falling 27-0 at Cleveland in week 9, 20-10 at Seattle, and 26-9 at the Rams in their last three road contests.
Arizona struggling on the road is a narrative to follow here, as they 0-5 in away games this season with the closest being a 20-16 defeat at Washington in week 1. Meanwhile the Texans are 3-1 at home and being in the midst of a playoff hunt in what should be a very winnable game should provide an electric crowd on Sunday.
The biggest reason Houston has value to cover the number in the Cardinals at Texans betting matchup is QB C.J. Stroud. He not only leads the NFL with 291.8 pass yards/game, but also gets a great matchup as the Cardinals give up the 3rd most points in the league (26.3).
Free NFL Week 11 Cardinals at Texans Betting Pick
There’s a lot of public action on Arizona here, mostly because the Texans just seem to play close games. You have to look at the flip side of that though, which is the fact that Arizona constantly loses big on the road. Houston’s offense will get theirs here, and it’s up to the defense to decide if they cover the number which leaves a solid opportunity for a double wager.
Free Pick: Houston -5.5
Free Pick: Over 47.5