NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots


The Buffalo Bills visit Gillette Stadium in New England Sunday where they take on division rivals the New England Patriots. The Patriots have won 9 of the last 10 meetings overall including the last 5 straight but they have covered the spread in just 6 of those 10 games.

Head to Head Trends

Bills are 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 meetings.
Bills are 1-9 straight up in the last 10 meetings.

New England Patriots (-5)

The New England Patriots are 1st in the AFC East with a 12-3 record and they also have the number one seed in the AFC rapped up so they can look forward to a bye through the first round of the playoffs. The Patriots actually lost their first game of the season and were just 2-2 after week 4 but since then they have gone 10-1 and have just crushed the competition. The Patriots have arguably the best offense in the league averaging a league best 30.6 points per game but they are just 10th in yards per game with 373. The Patriots also have a surprisingly good defense as well this season allowing 349 yards and 19.7 points per game.

New England Patriots Trends

Patriots are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

Buffalo Bills (+5)

The Buffalo Bills are 3rd in the AFC East with an 8-7 record and are eliminated from the playoffs. The Bills started out the season strong winning their first 2 games of the season but they kind of faded after that losing 5 of their next 8 games which made making the playoffs a long shot. The Bills don’t have the best offense in thew world averaging just 322 yards and 21.7 points per game but they do have a pretty good defense allowing 316 yards and 18.7 points per game.

Buffalo Bills Trends

Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.


Even though the Patriots have 1st place wrapped up and they don’t really have anything to play for so I guess that’s why a lot of people are on the Bills today but the Bills are out of the playoffs all together and don’t have anything to play for either. This is a division game and both teams definitely want to win so I still expect both teams to play hard and in that case I’m taking the best team in football the New England Patriots who are 7-0 at home this season.

Free Pick: New England Patriots -5


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