It’s another version of the Iron Bowl on Saturday afternoon for the Alabama at Auburn betting matchup. The Crimson Tide (10-1) remain in the hunt for a berth in the College Football Playoff but the Tigers usually play this rivalry game close when it’s on their own turf.
There’s no doubt that Alabama is the better team and likely gets the outright win, but the Tide being -13.5 favorites is a number that is set at the right spot to make things interesting. That being said, over 75% of public betting is on the visitors for this always interesting battle.
Why Alabama Has Value at -13.5
The Crimson Tide have way much more to play for on Saturday considering they are ranked #8 in the nation and have a shot at the CFP depending on how the SEC Championship Game plays out. Alabama has also won 7 of the last 9 Iron Bowl matchups so they want to keep that dominance over their in-state rival going.
Alabama should be pretty fresh coming into the always-tough Iron Bowl considering last week was a glorified bye in a 66-10 win over Chattanooga that even covered a -44 point spread. That win just kept the momentum going for Nick Saban’s club as it was their 9th straight win. The 2023 season includes a perfect 4-0 record on the road for Alabama who have been a profitable 8-3 ATS overall.
One of the big things about the momentum for Alabama is that it has provided an opportunity for their QB to establish himself. Jalen Milroe has 3 TD passes in each of the last two games and has multiple scoring throws in five of the last six. With the Crimson Tide defense being in the top 20 in the country in both yards allowed (310.5) and points surrendered (17.4) the combination of good QB play and Auburn not scoring leads to a cover of the -13.5.
Why Auburn Has Value at +13.5
10-1 vs 6-5 looks like an easy game to call, but you have to throw out the records when Alabama and Auburn meet up – especially at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The last three times Auburn has hosted the Iron Bowl have been a 24-22 Alabama win in 2021, a 48-45 Tigers win in 2019, and a 26-14 Auburn win in 2017.
Alabama has won 7 of the last 9 Iron Bowl matchups, but the Tigers have covered the number in 4 of the last 7. The Tigers were obviously looking forward to this game as they tripped up in a 31-10 loss to New Mexico State as -25 point favorites last week,
Before the loss to the Aggies, Auburn had won three straight and their offense was looking good while averaging over 35 ppg during that stretch. The Tigers might not have enough talent to get the outright win, but that is enough offensive production to cover the number at least.
Free Alabama at Auburn Betting Pick
Few people would argue that the Crimson Tide are going to leave with the W on Saturday. That being said, Auburn has a great chance of covering the +13.5 number on Saturday. This is the Iron Bowl, and when the Iron Bowl is at Jordan-Hare Stadium the Tigers find a way to keep things close. With so much public betting on Alabama this is a spot to fade the public and take the home dog.
Free Pick: Auburn +13.5