Forget basketball season, the main event in the Sunflower State right now is the Kansas State at Kansas betting matchup. #21 KSU and the #25 Jayhawks both still have outside chances of making it to the Big 12 Championship Game making this football rivalry matchup even more exciting.
There really are things to like about both teams in Saturday night’s meeting. KSU has more to play for being in a four-way tie at 5-2 for the chance to make it to the Big 12 Championship Game (Texas is 6-1 in conference) but the Jayhawks are getting +9.5 points even as a program that is 5-1 at home this season. 60% of the betting public likes taking the points, but does this one have the potential to get ugly on the other side?
Why Kansas State Has Value at -9.5
This might be a rivalry via location only, as just a little over 80 miles separates Manhattan, KS and Lawrence, KS. On the football field though, KSU has absolutely dominated this head to head series winning the last 14 meetings and 26 of the last 30.
While this is a rivalry game in spirit, it would be easy for K-State to look past the meeting with the Jayhawks considering their recent dominance in the matchup. That’s probably not the case in 2023 though, as KSU is still in the hunt to make it to the Big 12 Championship Game and also wants to build on an offense that ranks in the top 20 in the country in total yards (452.8), rushing (202.4), and points (38.8) while committing the 2nd fewest turnovers in the nation (10).
The KSU offense is no joke, as they’ve scored 38+ in four of the last five with their only loss during that span being a 33-30 OT defeat to 9-1 Texas. Maybe the real reason to take the visitors here though isn’t necessarily because of the Wildcats, but because of a Kansas team who is down starting QB Jalon Daniels as well as backup Jason Bean.
Why Kansas Has Value at +9.5
Just looking at the numbers, a team that is 5-1 at home this season getting +9.5 points on their own turf seems like an alright wager. When you throw in the rivalry aspect of KSU vs KU as well as the antagonism that comes from the Jayhawks being on a 14-game losing streak in the series there is no criticism in taking the points on Saturday night.
Make no mistake, the Jayhawks have an uphill battle due to their current QB situation. Jalon Daniels led the team to a 3-0 start before suffering a back injury and then Jason Bean stepped in to keep the team afloat before getting knocked out of last week’s 16-13 loss to Texas Tech with a head injury. Bean is probable for Saturday night though, which would be an upgrade over Cole Ballard who played his first collegiate game vs. the Red Raiders.
The positive thing about the Kansas QB situation is that they don’t really need to throw the football. The Jayhawks rank 17th in the nation with 199.1 ypg led by Devin Neal and his 965 yards and 10 TDs.
Free Week 12 Kansas State at Kansas Betting Pick
Normally you’d just take the +9.5 points and call it a day in a rivalry game, but this head-to-head series has been abnormally lopsided in recent years. Not only has KSU won 14 straight vs the Jayhawks, they’ve won by 28, 41, 25, and 20 points the last four meetings. With KU’s issues at QB, you have to lay the points here.
Free Pick: Kansas State -9.5