The Seminoles have the door knob cranked and are ready to step into the College Football Playoff with a win in the 2023 ACC Championship Game betting matchup. Unfortunately Florida State is going to have to not only get through a very good Louisville club to punch their ticket to the CFP, they’ll have to do it without offensive leader QB Jordan Travis who is out for the year with a leg injury.
Louisville (10-2) is more than ripe for the upset against the 12-0 Seminoles – in fact it would be barely an upset considering the Cardinals are just +1.5 underdogs in Charlotte, NC. The QB situation is murky for the ‘Noles which is why 65% of the betting public like Jeff Brohm’s Cards’.
Why Louisville Has Value at +1.5
There’s a lot of unknowns with Florida State losing Travis – which was really unfortunate for college football as a whole. Not only was the star QB hitting 64% of his passes while throwing 20 TDs to just 2 INTs, he had been a three year starter in Tallahassee which provides calming experience that is invaluable on a stage such as the 2023 ACC Championship Game betting matchup.
FSU losing Travis two weeks ago in a blowout win over North Alabama is only one of the reasons why Louisville has tremendous value getting points on Saturday night – they also might be down backup QB Tate Rodemaker who suffered a head injury in the win over Florida last Saturday. Rodemaker hasn’t practiced all week, and his backup would be freshman Brock Glenn who is 2/3 passing in his collegiate career.
Louisville has the defense that can feed on an FSU QB who is either a) fighting off a concussion and hasn’t practiced all week or b) making his first start and in a conference Championship Game. The Cardinals defense ranks 11th in the nation vs the run (96.8), are 20th in total yards allowed (314.7) and allow just 20.0 ppg.
Why Florida State Has Value at -1.5
Travis could very well be an NFL QB someday soon, but Florida State didn’t have him last week and they managed to get a 24-15 win in a rivalry matchup against Florida. The Seminoles got down 12-0 in that game and still came back – and that was with Rodemaker who was just 12/25 for 134 yards with 0 TD and 0 INTs so even if he can’t play it’s not a huge loss.
The FSU defense can – and will be expected to – keep Saturday night’s game close. This is a defense that hasn’t allowed more than 20 points since week 4 and rank 10th in the nation giving up just 16.8 ppg.
The Florida State offense is in shambles and the Louisville defense looks good on paper – but the Cardinals have also allowed 31+ points in three of their last six which proves they can be gotten to.
Free 2023 ACC Championship Game Betting Pick
There are two ways to play Saturday night’s line. First, the NCAA probably doesn’t want FSU to get into the College Football Playoff since they don’t have Travis at QB. Secondly though, why are the Seminoles still favored against Louisville? The Cardinals look too easy both on paper and with a tin foil hat on so it’s chaos and FSU the play here.
Free Pick: Florida State -1.5