While the calendar won’t turn over to March until midnight, this is still the Tom Izzo time of year which would seem to give his Spartans an advantage heading into Tuesday’s Michigan State at Nebraska betting matchup. MSU (17-11) is indeed a -4.5 road favorite in this spot, but the Cornhuskers haven’t been bad on their own court this season.
Nebraska (15-14) has gone a respectable 11-3 in Lincoln this season. That includes four straight conference wins at home – three of them as underdogs – as well as an OT defeat to the former #1 team in the country Purdue back in December. Despite the Cornhuskers success at home, 61% of the public still like the Spartans giving points.
Why Michigan State Can Cover -4.5
Those who got on MSU early receive a little better value as the Spartans opened up at just -3 which has jumped to -4.5. At least the line is moving though, as sometimes when 60% or greater of public bets come in on one side and there is no movement it’s sometimes the sign of a trap the other way.
Perhaps the biggest reason the Spartans can cover -4.5 in the Michigan State at Nebraska betting matchup is because they had no problem with the Cornhuskers earlier in the season, picking up a 74-56 win at the Breslin Center to easily cover the -7 number. Tyson Walker scored 21 points in that game while Joey Hauser added a 10 point / 10 rebound double-double.
Michigan State’s win over Nebraska on January 3rd was their 10th straight in the series. Four wins over that span came in Lincoln with margins of victory of 11,6,21, and 7. MSU’s last three wins in the series have all come by double digits, but they’ve also all been in East Lansing.
Why Nebraska Can Cover +4.5
The Cornhuskers have won four straight conference games at home, the win over last place Minnesota on Saturday was expected but still impressive at 78-67 which covered -7.5 for Nebraska. Prior to that Nebraska toppled Maryland as a +4 point ‘dog, Wisconsin at +3, and Penn State at +4.5 so Fred Hoiberg’s team defends their home court well.
Nebraska is playing well offensively lately, being consistent with 70+ points in six straight games and it’s no surprise that they’ve gone 5-1 over that span. Derrick Walker had a big game with 23 against Maryland on February 19th but it’s been Keisei Tominaga absolutely coming into his own with 20+ in five of the last six – not bad for a 12.6 ppg scorer.
Tominaga might be the hottest player in the Big Ten right now and he’ll be walking in Nebraska’s Senior Night festivities despite having a year of eligibility left. That should be another edge for the Cornhuskers, the emotions of Senior night against a Michigan State team playing their last road game of the regular season (3-6).
Free Nebraska at Michigan State Betting Pick
It’s nearly Izzo season but something doesn’t feel right about the Spartans’ trip to Lincoln on Tuesday night. The Cornhuskers are a very good home team, have 2-3 players on top of their game right now, and have the emotions of Senior night on their side.
Free Pick: Nebraska +4.5
