Oddsmakers had to have a doozy of a time coming up with the line for Saturday’s Clemson at North Carolina betting matchup. On one hand you’ve got the Tigers who are part of the 10-win log jam atop the ACC with Virginia, Pittsburgh, and Miami – but they’re also on the road and in the midst of a two game losing streak.
UNC is struggling too though as losers of three straight. Clemson has taken three of the last four in the head to head series but the Tar Heels are still -6.5 favorites for this meeting at the Dean Dome. Over 80% of the betting public is taking the Tigers and the points, the kind of number that pushes a bettor towards automatic fade waters.
Why Clemson Can Cover +6.5 Points
The Tigers struggled the last two times, falling 62-54 at Boston College as -4.5 favorites and then 78-74 at home to Miami with a -1.5 line. Really the two best things that came out of those defeats was that they were on January 31st and February 4th, respectively meaning Clemson has had a week to recalibrate.
Another thing to remember is that prior to their two losses a couple weeks ago, the Tigers had won 10 of their previous 11 games. Also usually when these two teams meet up for a Clemson at North Carolina betting matchup its a close game, as the margins of victory for the last five meetings have been 2, 13,3,2, and 4 and the 13-point game was a 63-50 Tigers win in February 2021.
The Tigers have the #3 defense in the ACC and the normally potent North Carolina offense has been held to 64 points or less in two of their last three.
Why North Carolina Can Cover -6.5 Points
The line itself is pointing towards a big Tar Heels victory, as -6.5 seems a bit on the high side for a team that has dropped three in a row. Whenever over 80% of the public agrees and takes Clemson plus the points it’s usually smarter to go the other way.
The Tar Heels had a bit of a defensive breakdown on Tuesday in a 92-85 loss to Wake Forest, but the Demon Deacons are also the 3rd highest scoring team in the ACC while Clemson is 7th. The Tigers are also a better defensive club than Wake Forest, but North Carolina still scored 85 points on Tuesday despite shooting just 4-18 from three and 41% from the field.
Maybe the biggest reason North Carolina can run away with this one (aside from being 10-1 at home) is Armando Bacot, who Clemson had no answer for in his 24 point, 10 rebound outing last February.
Free Clemson at North Carolina Betting Pick
One thing you learn in the sports betting journey is to read the line and not necessarily the game at times. If the public betting numbers are correct and there has been absolutely no line movement, then books stand to lose big if Clemson covers. Maybe they give one away knowing they’ll get it back on Super Bowl Sunday, but that still seems unlikely.
Free Pick: North Carolina -6.5
