There’s a conundrum brewing in Monday’s Baylor at Texas betting matchup. On one hand the Longhorns (17-4) are ranked higher and at home where they are 12-1 on the season. Then again Baylor (16-5) has absolutely owned this head to head matchup, winning six straight while covering ATS the last five in a row and taking 12 of the last 13 overall from the Longhorns.
These schools each had different weekends in the Big 12 / SEC Challenge, with Baylor holding on to a 67-64 win vs. Arkansas but failing to cover -6.5 while Texas locked horns with #4 Tennessee in an 82-71 loss as +5.5 underdogs. The ‘Horns are still -3.5 favorites at the Moody Center for Monday’s meeting.
Why Baylor Can Cover +3.5 Points
You can’t discount the head to head dominance the Bears have had in this series, The numbers are just astounding, with Baylor going 12-1 in the last 13 meetings with Texas which includes going 6-1 in Austin. The Bears have won 22 of the last 30 meetings after finally snapping a 24-game losing streak at the 2009 Big 12 Championship.
The Bears don’t just beat Texas, they beat up on them with an average margin of victory being 14.8 points the last six times they’ve played a ranked Longhorns squad. Baylor has won the last three in Austin by an average of 9.3 ppg.
BU is really rounding into form with six straight wins including a 75-69 victory over #9 Kansas last Monday at home as -2 point favorites. L.J. Cryer had 22 points in that game which pushed the Bears to 12-1 in their last 13 games against AP Top 25 opponents, and they are also 24-6 on the road in the Big 12 the last four seasons. Simply amazing.
Why Texas Can Cover -3.5 Points
All the numbers and past trends point to Baylor in Monday’s game, so there must be a reason for oddsmakers to justify making Texas the -3.5 favorite. Rodney Terry has done a great job going 10-3 as the interim Longhorns coach since the firing of Chris Beard, and he can vault to instant legend status with what would be a rare win over the Bears.
Texas is coming off a loss, but it was a nice “see where you stand” matchup against #4 Tennessee in Knoxville over the weekend. The Volunteers have won 16 of their last 17 games and have the #1 defense in the country, so the Longhorns actually get a nice reprieve coming off that game to face #17 Baylor. It doesn’t hurt the -3.5 play that Texas is 12-1 at the Moody Center this year, their lone loss coming 116-103 to Kansas State earlier this month.
The Longhorns do come into Monday’s matchup as the highest scoring team in the Big 12 (80.5 ppg) and are tied atop the standings with K-State and Iowa State at 6-2, no small feat in this absolutely battlefield of a conference.
Free Baylor at Texas Betting Pick
Just reading the lines this should be a play on Texas -3.5, because that point spread seems out of whack. Baylor is coming into form and has dominated the Longhorns for 3-4 years, yet are still getting that many points?
This is also a game that is easy to overthink. Baylor has put up incredible numbers against top 10 teams, on the road in the conference, and especially against Texas so until they start to consistently falter in some of those BU is the way to go.
Free Pick: Baylor +3.5