68% of the betting public is taking the visitors in the Iowa State at Texas Tech betting matchup, a significant number but not as much as one would expect in a meeting with the #12 Cyclones and a TTU squad that is 0-8 in Big 12 play.
It definitely seems like the trap has been laid on ISU, especially considering the 84-50 manhandling they gave Texas Tech in the first meeting on January 10th, breezing to an easy cover of the -4.5 spread in Ames. The Red Raiders have largely owned the head to head series, but it will take some guts to make them the play on Monday night.
Why Iowa State Can Cover -1.5 Points
You learn to read the lines in sports betting, and the fact that Iowa State is giving a mere -1.5 points on Monday night when it seems like the spread should be at least -4 or higher sets off some red flags. One trap bettors can also fall into though is overthinking things, and Iowa State is by far the better team in this matchup so -1.5 could be a gift.
What makes the Cyclones look like the play here is their defense, which ranks 12th in the country and 1st in the Big 12 with just 60.5 ppg allowed. Iowa State can fill it up on offense too, as Gabe Kalscheur proved in the first meeting with TTU scoring 25 points on 10-14 shooting. Jaren Holmes has also gone for 19+ in three of the last four.
Perhaps the way to approach the Iowa State at Texas Tech betting matchup is not a play on the Cyclones, but simply against the Red Raiders. TTU is the only team in the Big 12 yet to win a conference game (0-8) and will take a beating even at home as evidenced by last week’s 76-61 defeat to West Virginia even as -3.5 favorites in Lubbock.
Why Texas Tech Can Cover +1.5 Points
You can flip the script here and say TTU +1.5 isn’t a play on the Red Raiders, but against Iowa State who was humiliated 78-61 at Missouri on Saturday as a slight -1 point favorite in the Big 12 / SEC Challenge. That’s three losses in the last five games for the Cyclones, and all on the road which has dropped their record away from Ames to 2-4.
The Red Raiders did take a beating from ISU earlier this month, but that hasn’t been the norm in the head to head series which Texas Tech has now won 7 of the last 9. TTU also has some momentum, doing what Iowa State couldn’t do in the Big 12 / SEC Challenge by beating their opponent (LSU) 76-68 on the road.
Texas Tech may be 0-8 in the conference, but statistically their numbers aren’t as atrocious as you’d think. The Red Raiders rank 5th defensively allowing 67.0 ppg and are actually ahead of Iowa State in scoring, 74.5 to 70.6. The Cyclones defense is great, but has also allowed 77 ppg their last two.
Free Iowa State at Texas Tech Betting Pick
Every fiber in your being says take the Cyclones here as the #12 team in the country only has to win by a basket against a team that is winless in the Big 12. It’s time to follow the old adage of when it looks too good to be true it usually is and go with the Red Raiders.
Free Pick: Texas Tech +1.5