Make no mistake, the #6 Gators are the better team, especially at home, in the Arkansas at Florida pick for the NCAA week 11 primetime matchup. That being said, the spread favors UF by 17 points, a whole lot in a game with Razorbacks QB Feleipe Franks seeking revenge against his former team.
Then again, the 17 points might seem on the low side considering Florida has beaten Missouri 41-27 and won over Georgia 44-28 the last two games since returning from a 3-week COVID shutdown. Arkansas stuck with Texas A&M 42-31 and Auburn 30-28 in their last two road games.
Franks Set to Face Old Team
The ultimate storyline in the Arkansas at Florida pick is Razorbacks QB Feleipe Franks facing his old team the Gators. Franks was a starter for 3 seasons in Gainesville, a tumultuous experience that included being benched as a freshman, booed as a sophomore, and ultimately transferring after being unable to beat out Kyle Trask for the starting gig.
Franks has found a home in Fayetteville, and is ready to show Gators fans what they let get away. The Arkansas QB was 18/24 last week with 3 TD to lead the 24-13 win over Tennessee as +2 point home underdogs. Franks has completed 71% or better of his passes in 4 of the last 5 games, and has 13 TD to 1 INT over that span.
Arkansas dropped their season opener 37-10 at home to Georgia, but that was expected as +27.5 underdogs. The Razorbacks have gone 3-2 since then, but their two losses were a 2 point loss at Auburn as two TD underdogs and an 11 point loss at Texas A&M as +14.5 ‘dogs. The Razorbacks have wins over Ole Miss and Mississippi State, and are 3-2 despite being underdogs in all five games this season.
Can Gators Get the Blowout
Sam Pittman’s Razorbacks squad has shown the capability to keep games close – or win outright- despite being underdogs in every game. 60% of the betting public has taken note of that, and likes Arkansas with the 3 score spread on Saturday night. Is that a red flag that favors the Gators?
Franks has been great for Arkansas this season, but Florida has no seller’s remorse in going with Kyle Trask as their signal caller. The Heisman candidate threw for 474 yards and 4 TD last week vs. Georgia, his fifth straight game with 4+ TDs to start the season. Trask has 22 TD passes to only 3 INT on the year.
Franks can dish for the Razorbacks, and Trask has obviously shown the ability to put points on the board as Florida has scored at least 38 in each of their five games this season. The betting total is a whopping 62 for this meeting, but the Gators seem fine getting into shootouts and letting their offense win as 4 of 5 games have been on the high side of that 62 number.
Free Arkansas at Florida Pick
A lean on the side of this game would definitely go towards Arkansas and the points, as the Razorbacks have played tough in every game this year, especially as underdogs in each tilt. A matchup between two QBs who have combined to complete 70+ percent of their passes in 7 of 11 games this season means points are going to be aplenty.
Florida 41 – Arkansas 35
Free Pick: Over 62