It looks like the bait has been set for the March 31st Kings at Spurs matchup. One team is on a 5-game win streak, the other has lost 5 of their last 6. One team has climbed to within 2.5 games of the 8 seed in the West, while the other has fallen 3 spots and seems to be biding their time until they’re on the outside looking in.
One squad even beat the other 132-115 when the teams met up on Monday. Somewhat surprisingly enough, the team with all the momentum (Sacramento) finds themselves a +2.5 underdog when they visit the AT&T Center on Wednesday. That’s the same odds as Monday’s game that the Kings covered by nearly 20 points – did the oddsmakers simply forget to change the number?
Who Wouldn’t Hammer Sacramento Here?
The Kings are putting something together with wins in 7 of their last 8. Something seems to have clicked in a team that had one of the worst defenses in the league for the better part of the NBA schedule so far, as they’ve held 4 of 7 opponents to 110 points or less.
Sacramento is by no means out of the woods on the defensive end of the court. They’ve allowed 119 points to Washington, 129 at Philadelphia, and even 115 to the Spurs over the past two weeks. San Antonio’s offensive output on Monday aside, the Spurs just don’t scare you on that end of the court normally. Gregg Popovich’s team is in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency on the season.
While their defense is a work in progress, it’s the Sacramento offense that makes them almost an instant play getting points in the March 31st Kings at Spurs game. Just three games ago Luke Walton’s squad toppled Golden State 141-119, and then had 132 points in the win over the Spurs on Monday. The Kings are 6th overall in scoring offense this season, but tops over the last three games with 124.3 per.
Why are the Spurs Giving Points?
San Antonio hasn’t done a whole lot to warrant giving points to a team on a 5-game win streak, even while playing at the AT&T Center. Last weekend San Antonio lost a two game series at home to the Clippers by a combined 46 points.
The Spurs are playing their sixth straight game at home, being held under 101 points in each of the first three games and squeaking out a 120-104 victory over the lowly Bulls as their only win over that span. San Antonio is just 11-14 at the AT&T Center this season, and are the much less talented team coming into Wednesday’s matchup.
San Antonio simply doesn’t have an answer for the hot streak that De’Aaron Fox and Richaun Holmes are both on right now for Sacramento. Fox has 36+ in three of the last four, and Holmes has a double-double in three straight, including 23 and 12 vs. the Spurs last time out.
Free March 31st Kings at Spurs Pick
It could be a classic case of overthinking, but the fact that everything says bank on the Kings here and yet the Spurs are -2.5 favorites mean the play has to be San Antonio. 57% of the public are still on the Spurs, which mean if they win it’s likely due to a defensive meltdown from the Kings.
Spurs 122 – Kings 114
Free Pick: Spurs -2.5
Free Pick: Over 230.5