Boston (40-12) will look to add to their 1st place margin in the Eastern Conference when they head to South Beach for the February 11th Celtics at Heat betting matchup. The C’s have won five of their last six, but head on the road for the first time after a 7-game home stand.
The Heat (28-24) are playing better too, winning four of their last five following a seven game losing streak. These two teams just met up in Miami on January 25th in a big 143-110 Celtics win that easily covered the -8.5 spread at that number has dropped a bit to -6 for Sunday’s rematch.
Why Boston Has Value at -6
The Celtics have enjoyed a nice, long 5-2 home stand so it can be tough to go on the road for the first time after that.. The last time Boston was away from TD Garden though was at these Heat, who they dominated in a 33-point win as the C’s shot 64% from the floor and 55% from beyond the arc.
Boston’s win over the Heat at the end of January was the most lopsided game ever in the head to head series and the 143 points was the most the Celtics have ever scored against Miami. That has to be a little demoralizing for the Heat, who are 12 GB from the first place team in the East.
The Celtics are just 1-6 ATS over their last seven, but they’ve also been double digit favorites in the last four of those. Boston has scored 125+ points in four of their last five, which gives them an edge over a Miami team that is 27th in the NBA putting up 110.5 ppg.
Why Miami Has Value at +6
Sunday’s line seems a bit on the low side in a rematch of a game that was decided by 33 points when these two teams met up a little over two weeks ago. Public betting is fairly split here with 57% of the public on the Celtics, a number that is a bit lower considering Boston is making their first road trip of the month.
One thing going for Miami is that they are well rested, having been idle since Wednesday’s 116-104 victory over the Spurs. The Heat have also played five of their last six at home so they don’t have a ton of travel fatigue, which they hope will help them build on a mediocre 15-12 record at the Kaseya Center.
Miami seems to have put their 7-game win streak behind them, winning four of their last five while covering the number in each of those victories. Three of Boston’s last five wins have come by six points or less – all at home.
Free February 10th Celtics at Heat Betting Pick
It feels like Boston should be an 8+ point favorite on Sunday as they’re obviously the better team – perhaps the best in the NBA. The Celtics are a very solid road team (15-9) but there are a lot of intangibles working Miami’s way on Sunday.
Free Pick: Heat +6