The Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians open a four-game series on Monday night at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 PM ET. The Orioles enter with a 44-54 record and sit four games behind Cleveland in the American League wild card race. Cleveland is 48-50 and trying to get back to .500 for the first time since June.
These teams played three times in April, with Baltimore winning two of those games at Camden Yards. The Orioles took the April 17 game 6-2 behind seven strong innings from Tomoyuki Sugano. He’ll face Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee again in this rematch. Baltimore is coming off a road win over Tampa Bay, while Cleveland just won two out of three against the A’s at home after the All-Star break.
Orioles Preview – Sugano Looks to Repeat April Win
Tomoyuki Sugano is 7-5 with a 4.44 ERA this season. He was sharp against Cleveland in April, going seven innings with five hits and two runs allowed. He also did not walk a batter in that outing and gave up two solo homers. That win was part of a strong stretch early in the season, but Sugano has struggled more recently.
In his last five starts, Sugano has allowed 22 earned runs in 23 innings. He was hit hard by Texas and Tampa Bay in late June but rebounded against the Mets before the break with a six-inning, three-run performance. His pitch count has stayed consistent, averaging around 85–90 pitches per outing, but his command has slipped at times.
Offensively, the Orioles score 4.10 runs per game and allow 5.11. Their team batting average is .267, but run production has been streaky. Baltimore has relied on long balls from Gunnar Henderson and Ryan O’Hearn, both of whom homered off Bibee in April. The team will need strong at-bats again to support Sugano and avoid falling further behind in the wild card race.
Guardians Preview – Can Bibee Get Run Support?
Tanner Bibee is 5-9 with a 4.29 ERA, leading the team in losses this year. He allowed three home runs to Baltimore in April and has given up nine in his last nine starts. Bibee broke a five-decision losing streak before the break by holding the White Sox to two runs over 5.2 innings in a 6-2 win.
Despite his record, Bibee has received limited help. In his nine losses, the Guardians scored just 23 runs combined. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has been decent, and he has averaged about a strikeout per inning. If he keeps the ball in the park and limits traffic, he can be effective, especially with Cleveland’s bullpen behind him.
The Guardians are averaging 3.79 runs per game this season. They scored eight runs in two of their three games against Oakland and are showing signs of improvement. Daniel Schneemann and Austin Hedges homered off Sugano back in April, so they may be looking for another early spark. Cleveland’s bullpen, led by Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith, has a team ERA of 3.54 and should be ready if Bibee exits early.
Betting Prediction
Cleveland enters as a -135 favorite at home with the total set at 8.5 runs. The Guardians have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games, and they are coming off a solid series win. They’ve shown better offense lately and hold a stronger bullpen edge. Baltimore’s bullpen, on the other hand, has an 11.12 ERA over the last three games.
Tomoyuki Sugano beat Cleveland once this year, but his recent form is a concern. Tanner Bibee has had issues with run support but pitched well in his last start. If Cleveland continues to get good at-bats, they should take Game 1. The under may also be in play if both starters settle in. Final score prediction: Guardians 5, Orioles 3.
Pick: Guardians -135
