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NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Dolphins and Patriots nfl pickOverview

The Miami Dolphins head up to Gillette Stadium in New England for their big Thursday night matchup versus division rivals the New England Patriots. The Patriots won the last meeting blowing out the Dolphins 41-13 but the two meetings previous the Dolphins not only cover the spread but actually won straight up beating the Patriots 24-20 and 33-20.

Head to Head Trends

Home team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New England.

New England Patriots (-8)

The New England Patriots are 1st in the AFC East with a perfect 6-0 record. The Patriots have the top ranked offense in the league averaging 410 yards and 35.5 points per game. Their offense is largely built around the passing game averaging 327 yards through the air versus just 83 yards per game on the ground but why waste time running the ball when you have Brady at quarterback. The Patriots have a middle of the road defense allowing 358 yards and 21 points per game.

New England Patriots Trends

Patriots are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.
Patriots are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.

Miami Dolphins (+8)

The Miami Dolphins are 3rd in the AFC East with a 3-3 record. The Dolphins didn’t have the best start to the season losing 3 of their first 4 games but since a coaching change a couple weeks back they have looked great going 2-0 while outscoring their opponents 82-36 although to be fair they were playing the Texans and Titans so not exactly a couple of top teams. The Dolphins overall offensive and defensive numbers aren’t really all that impressive but a lot of their stats from earlier in the season you can throw right out the window as they are playing a whole different style of football right now.

Miami Dolphins Trends

Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
Dolphins are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.


I like the Miami Dolphins over the Patriots in this one tonight. Can the Dolphins keep up this new aggressive style of football? Who knows but I think they are definitely worth taking against the spread and it might even be worth taking a small shot on the money line for a decent payout.

Free Pick: Miami Dolphins +8 at Bovada.lv

About Bet2win

Dean kicks ass at giving simple easy to read sports picks and includes the recent stats on both teams. He specializes in NHL and MLB, but also does NBA and Golf picks.

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