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MLB Pick: Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins

Overview

The Philadelphia Phillies head down to Miami for a three game series with the Miami Marlins. This has been a fairly even season series so far with the Phillies holding a slight 9 win to 7 win edge although the Marlins have won 4 of the last 5 meetings in Miami.

Head to Head Trends

Phillies are 0-5 in Hamels’ last 5 road starts vs. Marlins.
Phillies are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Miami.

Miami Marlins (+121)

The Miami Marlins are 4th in the National League East 17 games out of 1st place. The Marlins are 7 games under .500 on the season with a 74-81 record although they have played ok at home where they are 2 games over .500 at 40-38. The Marlins average 4.00 runs per game on offense but that take a jump to 4.36 runs per at home and their pitching is similar allowing 4.20 runs per game overall but at home that drops down to just 3.96 runs per game. Starting for the Marlins today is Henderson Alvarez who is 11-6 with a 2.82 ERA on the season. The Marlins are actually 19-9 when Alvarez starts making him the 4th highest money earning pitcher for bettors. If you were to bet just $100 on each of Alvarez starts this season you would have profited a cool $1148.

Miami Marlins Trends

Marlins are 11-1 in Alvarezs last 12 home starts.
Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games following an off day.

Philadelphia Phillies (-131)

The Philadelphia Phillies are last in the National League East 20.5 games back of the 1st place Washington Nationals. The Phillies are 14 games under .500 one the season with a 71-85 record and they have similar home/away records so they’re just not very good anywhere. The Phillies average 3.88 runs per game on offense and allow 4.28 runs per game on defense. It was just a couple weeks ago that the Phillies were the team to ride for bettors as they started playing much better and the odds were still high so we were getting them as a nice underdog almost every day but that has turned around as they are back to their old ways winning just 5 of their last 15 games. On the mound for the Phillies today is lefty Cole Hamels who is 9-7 with a 2.47 ERA on the season.

Philadelphia Phillies Trends

Phillies are 2-6 in their last 8 overall.
Phillies are 7-15 in Hamels’ last 22 starts with 5 days of rest.

Conclusion

I’m going to take the Marlins in this one today. There’s really no reason the Phillies should be a -131 road favorite in this game. I know Cole Hamels has been good this season but so has Henderson Alvarez. The Marlins are 19-9 in Alvarez’s starts this season while the Phillies are just 15-13 in Cole’s starts so I don’t see a huge advantage for the Phillies here I see this game as more of a coin flip.

Free Pick: Miami Marlins +120 at Bovada.lv   

 

About Bet2win

Dean kicks ass at giving simple easy to read sports picks and includes the recent stats on both teams. He specializes in NHL and MLB, but also does NBA and Golf picks.

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