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MLB Pick: Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals

Overview

The Minnesota Twins are in Kansas City for the second game of their three game series with their division rivals the Kansas City Royals. The Twins have not feared all that well against the Royals of late winning just 7 of the last 20 meetings overall and 4 of the last 14 in Kansas City.

Head to Head Trends

Twins are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings in Kansas City.
Twins are 7-13 in their last versus the Royals.

Kansas City Royals (-145)

The Kansas City Royals are 2nd in the American League Central 5 games back of the 1st place Detroit Tigers. The Royals are now 1 game over .500 on the season with 53 wins and 52 losses. The Royals have a very solid pitching staff averaging under 4 runs allowed per game but they could use a little bit more fire power on offense as they are averaging just 3.97 runs per game and are actually last in homeruns. On the mound today for the Royals is lefty Danny Duffy who is 5-10 with a 2.47 ERA. Duffy has pitched great this season but has been the victim of low run support from the Royals offense who have averaged just 2.8 runs per game in his starts.

Kansas City Royals Trends

Royals are 5-2 in their last 7 overall.
Royals are 10-3 in Duffys last 13 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Royals are 7-3 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Minnesota Twins (+135)

The Minnesota Twins are 5th in the American League Central 10 games back of the Detroit Tigers. The Twins are 9 games under .500 on the season at 48-57 and have a run deferential of -0.39 runs per game. I only mention that because on the road they’re hitting is about the same but their pitching is substantially better and the Twins have just a -.08 run differential away from home. Starting for the Twins is ex Yankees Phil Hughes who is 10-7 with a 4.10 ERA on the season but has really started to fade over the past month or so.

Minnesota Twins Trends

Twins are 1-4 in Hughes’ last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Twins are 30-78 in their last 108 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Twins are 2-5 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Conclusion

I like the Kansas City Royals to get it done today versus the Twins. I mainly like the starting pitching matchup with Danny Duffy over Phil Hughes. Duffy has been great since joining the starting rotation back in early May while Phil Hughes got off to a good start this season but now he’s back to the same old Phil Hughes giving up lots of hits and lots of runs.

 

About Bet2win

Dean kicks ass at giving simple easy to read sports picks and includes the recent stats on both teams. He specializes in NHL and MLB, but also does NBA and Golf picks.

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