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NFL Pick: San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills

2016 Week Six NFL Pick San Francisco Visits Buffalo

San Francisco visits Buffalo.

In this 2016 week six NFL pick San Francisco visits Buffalo. The 49ers are at 1-4 and struggling while the Bills are on a winning streak having won their last three games and compiling a 3-2 record. The game will be played at 1 p.m. at New Era Field. The Niners will see a quarterback change today as controversial signal caller Colin Kaepernick replaces the ineffective Blaine Gabbert. Bills head coach Rex Ryan made a change after losing his first two games. He fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Since then the Bills are 3-0.

San Fran comes in having lost four straight and all but one of those losses was by double digits. That’s significant as the spread has Buffalo at -8.0. As of late, Buffalo has been playing exceptionally well on both sides of the ball.

San Francisco Offense vs. Bills D

Kaepernick starts for SF.

Kaepernick starts for SF.

QB Blaine Gabbert has been a bust. Colin Kaepernick, who has been refusing to stand for the National Anthem, will take to the field today. This is Kaepernick’s sixth season with the Niners. He’s played a total of 57 games and has a completion rate of 59.9%. He’s tossed 56 TDs, 26 INTs, and has fumbled nine times. This is the first time he’s thrown a pass during the 2016 season. His overall rating is 88.5.

WR Jeremy Kerley, the team’s leading pass catcher with 26 catches for an average gain of 11.7 yards and two touchdowns, is questionable today with a knee. TE Garrett Celek (11 REC, 135 YDs, 12.3 AVG, 0 TDs) is a reliable outlet. San Francisco, which is last in receiving, does much better on the ground. They are ranked eighth in the NFL in rushing. RB Carlos Hyde leads the team with 377 yards and six TDs. He’s averaging a healthy 4.0 YPC.

This game will start with the Bill defense. They are allowing just 17.4 PPG, and they are shutting teams down in the red zone. Only one team has scored more than 20 points against them and that was, ironically, the Jets. NY beat Buffalo 37-31 in week two. The team has 17 sacks and 14 TFL. Between them LBs Lorenzo Alexander and Jerry Hughes have 11 sacks. Alexander also has two TFL, one PD, and two FF. The Bills have forced a total of seven fumbles, recovering five and have notched six picks. CB Stephon Gilmore has two interceptions and five passes defended. This is a tough D.

Buffalo O vs. 49ers Defense

Bills linebackers are tough on quarterbacks.

Bills linebackers are tough on quarterbacks.

The Bills offense has come alive during the past three games. Although they are averaging 23 PPG, over the past three they have averaged 26.3. In two of those games, they score 30 and 33 points. QB Tyrod Taylor is completing 61.8% of his passes. He has six TD passes and has tossed two INTs. LeSean McCoy is the featured running back, averaging a hefty 5.3 YPC. He has three touchdowns on the ground.

The San Francisco defense is average. They’ve tallied 26 PD and four INTs. They have recovered four of the six fumbles they’ve forced. On the line, the D has a dozen tackles for a loss and eight sacks. Those last two numbers are on the low end. The Niners will be without the heart of their defense LB NaVorro Bowman. He’s out with an Achilles. LB Nick Bellore, 20 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and one interception, will need to step up. Nick Bellore and Eric Reid are their top safeties. They are allowing an average of 28 PPG.

2016 Week Six NFL Pick San Francisco Visits Buffalo

In this 2016 week six NFL pick San Francisco visits Buffalo, we have weighed the way in which Buffalo has managed to play solid offense as of late and their  stellar D, against the Niners relatively average to weak defense and problematic offense.

We don’t think that Kaepernick will solve their problems on offense today. Take the red hot Bills at -8.0.

2016 Week Six NFL Pick San Francisco Visits Buffalo: Buffalo at -8.0

About pmroczka

Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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